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La OMC rebaja al 3,9% la previsión de crecimiento del comercio global para 2018
El proteccionismo empieza a hacer mella. La Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) rebaja al 3,9% la previsión de crecimiento del comercio global para 2019, cinco décimas por debajo de los cálculos realizados en abril, que situaban la subida en el 4,4%.
La OMC achaca el freno a las tensiones comerciales crecientes y a las difíciles condiciones de los mercados. Los economistas de la organización apuntan que también influyen las políticas monetarias más restrictivas y la volatilidad financiera.
Si bien esta última predicción recorta la de abril, está dentro de la horquilla que la OMC marcó entonces y en la que se estimaba un crecimiento de entre el 3,1% y el 5,5% hasta 2018. Ahora, la horquilla se resitúa entre el 3,4% y el 4,4%.
La institución señala también que el crecimiento de los intercambios comerciales globales se moderará aún más en 2019. Para el año que viene, la OMC estima ahora una subida del 3,7%, frente al 4% previsto el pasado abril.
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Se espera también que en 2019, el Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) mundial crezca un 2,9%, mientras que este año el aumento será del 3,1%. “Los indicadores muestran una pérdida de momentum, incluyendo los pedidos de exportación y las políticas económicas inciertas”, señala la OMC en su informe.
Este documento apunta también que Norteamérica fue la región que registró un mayor crecimiento de las exportaciones en el primer semestre y Asia, el que más incrementó las importaciones. Por otro lado, la OMC también señala que las economías basadas en materias primas continúan sufriendo.
Ante este escenario, el director general de la OMC, Roberto Azevêdo, ha asegurado que “más que nunca, es crucial que los gobiernos resuelvan sus diferencias y muestren control”, en una clara referencia a la Administración de Donald Trump y la guerra comercial que ha emprendido contra China.
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