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La moda, en crisis por el coronavirus. Nueve de cada diez compañías cotizadas del sector podrían enfrentarse a problemas financieros si el cierre de tiendas se alargase dos meses, según un informe publicado esta semana por McKinsey. De llegar a tres meses, sólo el 7% de las empresas lograrían esquivar el golpe.
Los intentos por frenar el avance del coronavirus han cerrado, progresivamente, la mayor parte de las tiendas en todo el mundo. China, el primer país afectado, es hoy el único donde gigantes como H&M o Inditex mantienen sus tiendas abiertas.
La mayoría de grandes grupos han lanzado ya profit warnings, alertando de caídas de hasta el 30% en el primer trimestre, cuando el cierre afectaba a sólo a Asia y Europa y acababa de llegar a Estados Unidos.
Según McKinsey, antes de la crisis el 38% de las empresas se encontraban ya en problemas, es decir, tenían un ebitda negativo o el ratio de deuda neta respecto al ebitda era superior a cuatro.
Si el cierre dura sólo un mes, el periodo previsto inicialmente en países como España, el porcentaje de empresas en apuros podría llegar al 66%. En este escenario, McKinsey contempla que las ventas anuales podrían llegar a caer un 17%, teniendo en cuenta el mes de cierre y otro mes de recuperación.
Si la medida llegara a durar dos meses, el 89% de las compañías del sector estarían en problemas. En este caso, la consultora prevé un periodo de recuperación de dos meses, por lo que la caída anual ascendería al 33%.
En España, el tráfico online en webs de moda se ha desplomado un 42% en el último mes
El escenario más pesimista, de tres meses de cierre, llevaría al 93% de las empresas a una situación financiera crítica, lastrada por una caída anual de las ventas de alrededor del 42% en 2020.
Las ventas online, lejos de compensar la caída de ventas por el cierre de tiendas, también impactarán negativamente al sector. La consultora subraya que el tráfico online ha descendido y que las compras emocionales han sido reemplazadas por transacciones más funcionales.
Entre el 19 de febrero y el 17 de marzo, las visitas a páginas web de moda se redujeron un 27% en Reino Unido y un 18% en Alemania, los dos países europeos con mayor penetración del canal online.
La caída fue mayor en los mercados que sufrieron primero el impacto de la crisis y los que han tomado las medidas más radicales en Europa, España e Italia. En el mercado italiano, el descenso del tráfico fue del 38%, mientras que en España llegó al 42%.
Por sectores, McKinsey anticipa que el mayor impacto lo sufrirá el lujo, según los primeros datos recogidos en Alemania. En la primera potencia europea, las ventas de lujo su hundieron un 33% en la undécima semana del año, frente al 23% que descendieron las del segmento medio y el 25% las del low cost y las cadenas outlet.
La pandemia global ha impactado además en un sector en horas bajas. A cierre de 2018, sólo el 44% de las empresas del sector creaban valor, es decir, registraban beneficios que superaban el coste estimado de capital. En los últimos cinco años, el porcentaje de empresas que destruyen valor se ha casi duplicado. Además, el crecimiento del sector está muy concentrado: unos pocos súper ganadores, según McKinsey, copan el 177% del beneficio del sector.
El aprendizaje de China: la recuperación no arrastra a la moda
En China, donde la actividad comercial ya ha comenzado a reactivarse, la recuperación está siendo progresiva y tardará todavía más en llegar al sector de la moda. En marzo, cuando comenzó la reapertura de tiendas, el 75% de ciudadanos continuaba evitando los centros comerciales. Además, diez días después de levantarse las restricciones hubo una segunda oleada de infecciones en Hong Kong, lo que supuso otro golpe también para la confianza de los consumidores.
McKinsey prevé que el consumo no comience a recuperarse hasta abril y recalca que “la reapertura de tiendas no significa un regreso a la normalidad”. En este sentido, aunque un 64% de los consumidores en China aseguran que recuperarán el mismo nivel de gasto o más que antes de la crisis del Covid-19, entre un 50% y un 70% han reducido su consumo en moda.
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