Latinoamérica se contrae: el coronavirus hunde un 5,2% el PIB de la región en 2020
La Gran Reclusión también llega a Latinoamérica. La crisis del coronavirus penalizará a todas las economías mundiales y apunta a una recesión global del 3% en 2020. Para Latinoamérica, las previsiones del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) pasan por que el Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) se contraiga un 5,2% este año.
Para este año, las estimaciones del organismo pasaban porque la economía del conjunto de los países de Latinoamérica y el Caribe se elevara un 1,6%, frente al avance del 0,1% registrado en 2019. “El Covid-19 ha perturbado el orden social y económico a una velocidad fulgurante y a una escala que no hemos visto jamás”, dijo la semana pasada Kristalina Georgieva, directora gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI).
Sin embargo, tras el impacto del coronavirus, los mercados de la región sufrirán un rebote y registrarán un crecimiento del PIB del 3,4% en 2021, superando las previsiones del pasado enero realizadas por el organismo, en las que preveía que el PIB de la región se elevara un 2,3% en 2021.
El FMI pronostica un crecimiento del 3,4% de la economía latinoamericana en 2021
En México, la economía se contraerá un 6,6% este año, según las nuevas previsiones del organismo. El país azteca finalizó 2019 con una caída del 0,1% de su PIB y preveía crecer un 1% este año. Para 2021, las previsiones pasan porque la economía mexicana se eleve un 3% tras el brote del Covid-19.
En Brasil, por su parte, la economía experimentará un retroceso del 5,3% tras el impacto del coronavirus. El país, cuyo PIB se elevó un 1,2% en 2019, revertirá la situación en 2021, cuando la economía crezca un 2,9%.
Después de Brasil, Ecuador será el segundo mercado latinoamericano donde más se contraerá la economía este año, con un retroceso del 6,3%, según las nuevas previsiones del FMI. En 2021 el avance del PIB en la región será del 3,9%.
En Argentina, por su parte, el PIB caerá un 5,7% este año para rebotar un 4,4% en 2021, mientras que en Chile la caída será del 4,5% y en 2021 experimentará un avance del 5,3%. En Uruguay, por su parte, la economía retrocederá un 3% este año para luego crecer un 5%.
Colombia es el mercado latinoamericano que menos sufrirá el impacto del coronavirus.
Según las estimaciones del organismo, el PIB colombiano se contraerá un 2,4% este año y experimentará un crecimiento del 3,7% en 2021. En el caso de Perú, la caída será del 4,5%, pero se recuperará en 2021 con un avance del 5,2%.
El PIB colombiano se contraerá un 2,4% este año
El conjunto de las economías emergentes sufrirá una contracción del PIB del 1% este año. Estas regiones, además, “se enfrentan a desafíos adicionales relacionados con las reversiones sin precedentes de los flujos de capital, al tiempo que lidian con sistemas sanitarios más deficientes”, dice el FMI. En paralelo, varios de estos mercados entraron en esta crisis en un estado vulnerable, con crecimiento lento y niveles elevados de deuda, según el organismo.
Por otro lado, los mercados maduros serán donde el Covid-19 cause más estragos económicos. Según el FMI, las economías avanzadas serán donde el coronavirus ocasione un mayor impacto, contrayendo su PIB hasta un 6,1% este año.
Para todo el planeta, el FMI espera que el PIB mundial se contraiga un 3% en 2020. Por ahora, la pérdida acumulada del PIB mundial en 2020 y 2021 debida a la crisis de la pandemia podría rondar los nueve billones de dólares, cifra mayor a la que representan las economías de Alemania y Japón juntas. De darse un segundo brote, podría causar una contracción de la economía mundial del entre el 5% y el 8%.
En el supuesto de que el coronavirus desaparezca, o haya menos contagios, en el segundo semestre, y que las medidas de política adoptadas en todo el mundo funcionen, la proyección del FMI es que el crecimiento mundial repuntará en 2021, con un alza del 5,8%.
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