Goldman Sachs no comparte el temor de Wall Street a una recesión
17 de septiembre re 2018, 10:25 AM.- Los economistas de Goldman Sachs Group Inc. se muestran más relajados que otros bancos de Wall Street acerca de los riesgos de una recesión en Estados Unidos para el 2020.
A Bridgewater Associates Inc. y JPMorgan Chase & Co. les preocupa que unas políticas fiscales y monetarias más estrictas creen problemas para la mayor economía del mundo dentro de dos años, pero Goldman Sachs ve solo un 36 por ciento de posibilidades de recesión en los próximos tres años. Ese riesgo está por debajo de la media histórica.
“Ha habido un creciente interés de los inversores en la posibilidad de una recesión en Estados Unidos durante los próximos años”, dijeron economistas de Goldman Sachs dirigidos por Jan Hatzius en un informe publicado el domingo. “Nuestro modelo presenta una imagen más benigna”.
Estos expertos consideran que el crecimiento seguirá siendo sólido y están menos preocupados de lo que estaban acerca de unas condiciones económicas que se volvieron insosteniblemente fáciles.
Aun así, señalaron que Estados Unidos todavía tiene el poder de tumbar otras economías. Si Estados Unidos entra en recesión, la posibilidad de que otras economías desarrolladas padezcan la misma suerte en el año siguiente es de casi el 70 por ciento, según el análisis de Goldman Sachs de cuatro décadas de datos.
“La experiencia histórica sugiere que las recesiones en Estados Unidos han ido de la mano de recesiones en otros lugares”, dijo el equipo de Hatzius. “Pero a pesar de que el ciclo de Estados Unidos importa para otras economías, seguimos siendo optimistas respecto al panorama”.
Fuente: Bloomberg.
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