
La economía simple de la inteligencia artificial
Harvard Business Review, 3:15 PM.- Se podrán simplificar innumerables procedimientos de la vida del ser humano, pero el hombre no será reemplazado aún cuando se requiera menos de sus esfuerzos operativos. Este innovador campo, reducirá las exigencias físicas y los costos pero no el aporte intelectual de cada persona.
Las revoluciones tecnológicas suelen conllevar el abaratamiento de alguna actividad importante. Muchas hipótesis han surgido desde la llegada de los robots, el impacto en el campo laboral entre otros tantos hábitos de la vida de los seres humanos.
La inteligencia artificial es, en esencia, una tecnología predictiva. Por lo que bajará los costos de bienes y servicios que dependen de la predicción, incluyendo al transporte, agricultura, salud, energía, manufactura y venta al por menor. Pero también usaremos la predicción en nuevas formas para resolver otros problemas.
Piense en la navegación.
Hasta hace poco, la conducción autónoma estaba limitada a ambientes controlados como depósitos y fábricas, donde los programadores podían anticipar un amplio rango de escenarios y elaborar en consecuencia algoritmos decisivos del tipo “si esto pasa, entonces …” (por ejemplo, “Si un objeto se acerca al vehículo, entonces desacelere”). Era inconcebible poner un vehículo autónomo en una calle de la ciudad porque el número de escenarios posibles requeriría programar un número casi infinito de algoritmos del tipo “si esto pasa, entonces …”.
Inconcebible, esto es, hasta hace poco. Una vez que la predicción se abarató, los innovadores reformularon al manejo como un problema predictivo.
En lugar de programar interminables declaraciones “si esto pasa, entonces …”, en cambio simplemente le pidieron a la Inteligencia Artificial (IA) que prediga “¿Qué haría un conductor humano?” Equiparon vehículos con una variedad de sensores (cámaras, tecnología LIDAR, radares, etc.) y luego recopilaron información de manejo humano de millones de kilómetros.
Conectando la información de los sensores del exterior del auto a las decisiones del conductor de adentro del vehículo (volanteo, frenado, aceleración), la IA aprendió a predecir cómo reaccionarían los humanos a cada segundo de información recibida de su entorno. Así, la predicción representó un nuevo enfoque para resolver un problema.
A medida que la IA mejore, el valor de las habilidades predictivas humanas disminuirá porque la predicción de las máquinas será un sustituto mejor y más barato. Pero esto no le cavará la tumba a los empleos humanos.
Esto es porque el valor de las habilidades de criterio humano aumentará.
En el idioma de la economía, el criterio es un complemento de la predicción y, por lo tanto, cuando el costo de la predicción cae, la demanda de criterio crece. Vamos a querer más criterio humano. Es decir que los humanos estarían minvolucrados más en la evaluación y supervisión de los procesos.
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