Apple, Amazon, Alphabet: la carrera a un trillón de dólares
En lo que respecta a las predicciones para 2018, la mayoría de los analistas financieros están de acuerdo en una cosa: es probable que una empresa de tecnología se convierta en la primera compañía de billones de dólares de los Estados Unidos.
La pregunta es: ¿cuál será?
El jueves, obtendremos una gran pista sobre quién podría llegar a ese hito increíble primero, a medida que los tres mayores gigantes tecnológicos de EE. UU. Lanzan sus últimos resultados.
¿Podría ser Apple?
Eso depende en gran medida de su último y supuestamente mejor teléfono inteligente, el iPhone X.
Si las ventas son fuertes, y tendrán que ser muy fuertes, el valor de Apple se disparará a un billón de dólares en muy poco tiempo.
Con una etiqueta de precio más alta, $ 999, el iPhone X no necesitaría romper los récords de ventas para obtener ganancias récord, y convencer a los inversores que Apple todavía tiene la capacidad de llevar la innovación a su línea de productos más grande por lejos.
Pero últimamente ha habido informes que sugieren que Apple podría reducir sus objetivos de producción para el dispositivo a casi la mitad. Eso no es lo que los inversores querían escuchar.
Aún así, incluso si las ventas de iPhone X son modestas, aún se espera que la compañía reporte un crecimiento en los ingresos de más del 10%. Eso lo pondría muy bien encaminado para alcanzar un valor de mercado de $ 1 billón para fin de año.
Para aumentar las sinergias, y más allá
Pero Amazon podría llegar allí primero.
(Lea https://www.grupomercadeo.com/fin-los-retailers-fisicos-los-retailers-online/ )
El presidente ejecutivo, Jeff Bezos, ahora es cómodamente el hombre más rico del mundo. El precio de las acciones de su empresa aumentó en más del 50% en 2017.
La mayor parte de eso fue impulsado por un gran crecimiento en su negocio en la nube: Amazon Web Services.
Pero la compañía ahora también tiene Whole Foods en su cartera. Se habla de «mayores oportunidades de sinergia» aquí: la superposición de las ubicaciones físicas de Amazon y Whole Foods podría ser extremadamente lucrativa. La apertura de una tienda minorista de concepto el mes pasado fue suficiente para dar un rebote a las acciones. Seguramente solo el comienzo.
Sin embargo, lo que probablemente mantendrá el valor de Amazon es la tasa a la que gastará dinero. Se espera que invierta más de $ 4 mil millones en la creación de contenido para su servicio de Prime TV mientras continúa su lucha con Netflix.
Hay una inversión continua en su asistente Alexa. El año pasado, Amazon nos dijo que tenía más de 5.000 personas trabajando en el desarrollo de la tecnología, que está yendo mano a mano con el sistema asistente de Google.
Y en un esfuerzo por ofrecer más rápidamente más productos a más personas, Amazon también está abriendo más centros de despacho en mercados de todo el mundo.
Eso es mucho gasto, y eso es antes de que comience a construir su segunda sede, donde sea que termine. No es de extrañar que Daniel Ives de GBH Insight les dijera a los inversores de Amazon que estaban considerando un período de «dolor a corto plazo» pero «ganancia a largo plazo».
Juego de hardware del alfabeto
OK entonces, ¿y qué hay del alfabeto?
Se espera que la empresa matriz de Google informe los ingresos generales que han aumentado en aproximadamente un 20% en este momento el año pasado. Pero, como siempre, eso es principalmente de publicidad de búsqueda y YouTube, sus grandes ingresos.
Si Alphabet va a superar esa marca de un billón de dólares, tendrá que aumentar los ingresos de otras áreas además de la publicidad.
Observe de cerca qué tan bien se está desempeñando su hardware: los teléfonos Pixel 2 se lanzaron el año pasado y hubo un enorme impulso de marketing para su asistente de Google Home.
¿Funcionó? Cuando se trata de hardware, Alphabet no está en la misma liga que Apple. Pero cualquier señal prometedora tendría a los inversores saltando de alegría. También lo harían las grandes ganancias en la computación en la nube, que es otra cosa que los analistas esperan unánimemente. El dominio del mercado de Google en inteligencia artificial podría ser útil si quiere cerrar la brecha en Amazon Web Services.
Mientras escribo esto, es Apple, con un valor de $ 860bn, que está más cerca de esa marca de $ 1tn. Amazon descansa en poco menos de $ 700 mil millones, mientras que el alfabeto se mueve a $ 817 mil millones. ¿Cuál será más allá de este hito simbólico y fenomenal?
Ya sabes, tal vez todos lo harán
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